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Jobless Claims Drop

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims, for the week ending February 20, was 730,000.  This is a decrease of 111,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

  • The insured unemployment rate was 3.1% for the week ending February 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate

Economists had projected that initial jobless claims would hold nearly steady according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

How could economists be so wrong?  Well, they might not be.  The deadly winter storms that hit Texas and other states could be messing with the numbers.  The Wall Street Journal reports that the storms, “could have made difficult for people to file claims and for state governments to process them.”

So watch next week not only for the numbers but also for the revisions.

February 25, 2021, 8:33 amby Tyler Cralle
The Blog

NEWSLETTER: House Today, Gone Tomorrow

Thursday’s newsletter is out! We discuss skyrocketing new home sales to start 2021, foreclosure numbers dip but is their danger on the horizon, and are diamond hands back with GameStop?

Read the latest issue

February 25, 2021, 7:51 amby Tyler Cralle
The Blog

Good Morning, World!

Happy Thursday! We are 20 Days from St. Patrick’s Day & 38 Days from Easter

☕️ Shares of GameStop climbed 44% in premarket trade on Thursday as heavily-shorted stocks favored by Reddit traders look set for a resurgence (CNBC), Government borrowing from markets in the world’s richest economies surged by a record 60% in 2020 (Bloomberg), and weekly figures on unemployment filings face anomalies from weather, attempted fraud and changes in government policy (Wall Street Journal)

February 25, 2021, 6:15 amby Tyler Cralle
The Blog

Southern Tree Growers Miss Out On Lumber Boom

Lumber prices are soaring. Why are tree growers miserable?  The Wall Street Journal explains that sawmills are running as close to capacity as pandemic precautions will allow and are unable to keep up with lumber demand. The problem for timber growers is that so many trees have been planted between the Carolinas and Texas that mills are paying the lowest prices in decades for logs. (Wall Street Journal)

The log-lumber divergence has been painful for thousands of Southerners who are counting on pine trees for income and as a way to hold on to family land. And it has been incredibly profitable for forest-products companies that have been buying mills in the South. Three Canadian firms— Canfor Corp. CFPZF 0.27% , Interfor Corp. IFP 5.74% and West Fraser Timber Co. WFG 2.05% —control about one-third of the South’s lumber-making capacity. Since bottoming out last March, shares of the Canadian sawyers have risen more than 300%, compared with a 73% climb of the S&P 500 index.
February 24, 2021, 3:44 pmby Tyler Cralle
The Blog

Time To Start Being Optimistic

I am loving Scott Lincicome’s latest newsletter. Vaccinations are up, cases are down, and the economy is primed to boom. He is right, it’s time to start being optimistic! (The Dispatch)

In short, we’re not entirely out of the woods and many Americans are definitely still hurting, but the U.S. economy overall is adapting and the future looks pretty bright, as long as we get the virus under control (and don’t shoot ourselves in the foot by enacting “spring 2020” policies in a far different and better U.S. economic environment).
February 24, 2021, 1:58 pmby Tyler Cralle
The Blog

Foreclosures Drop, But Concern On The Horizon

The good news is mortgage delinquency rate falls below 6% for first time in nearly a year.  The bad new is 2.1 million homeowners remain seriously delinquent (Black Night)

Recent forbearance and foreclosure moratorium extensions have reduced near-term risk, but at the same time may have the effect of extending the length of the recovery period…At the current rate of improvement, 1.8 million mortgages will still be seriously delinquent at the end of June when foreclosure moratoriums on government-backed loans are currently slated to lift
February 24, 2021, 12:44 pmby Tyler Cralle
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