Trump’s Trade War Hurt the Economy

The trade war with China hurt the US economy by reducing US economic growth and employment, resulting in an estimated peak loss of 245,000 jobs. Tariff rates remain at a multi-decade high despite both countries reaching a phase one trade agreement which China isn’t even close to fulfilling having come up 42% short of its purchase commitments (USCBC)

Scaling back tariffs would likely benefit the US economy and create jobs. Even a moderate rollback in tariffs could increase economic growth and stimulate employment growth. Under our trade war de-escalation scenario, where both governments gradually scale back average tariff rates to around 12% (compared with around 19% now), the US economy produces an additional $160 billion in real GDP over the next five years and employs an additional 145,000 people by 2025. US household income would be $460 higher per household as result of increased employment and incomes as well as lower prices.